On July 14, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump issued a striking warning that could rattle global energy markets. In an interview with NBC News, he announced that if no breakthrough is reached in negotiations with Moscow over the war in Ukraine within 50 days, his administration will impose 100% tariffs on countries that continue to purchase Russian oil.
This marks a significant escalation in economic pressure—not just on Russia, but also on key importers of its energy exports, including India, China, and Turkey. These are so-called secondary sanctions, but in this case, they come with unprecedented weight.
“If you’re still doing business with Russia, you’re not doing business with America,” Trump declared.
The move is already raising concerns among economists. A shock to global oil supplies could destabilize markets, drive up fuel prices, and trigger inflation—not just abroad, but within the U.S. itself. According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, India sourced over a third of its crude oil from Russia in 2024, while China relied on Russian imports for around 19% of its needs. A 100% tariff could send ripples through their economies and beyond.
But the economic impact is only part of the story. Trump also revealed details of a new arms supply arrangement with Europe. Under this plan, the U.S. will continue supplying weapons to Ukraine, but European allies will now shoulder the financial burden. Trump stated that U.S. weapons—such as Patriot air defense systems and HIMARS rockets—will be funneled through NATO.
“We ship it to NATO, NATO pays for it, and NATO gives it to Ukraine,” he explained.
This restructuring follows a temporary pause in direct arms shipments to Ukraine in early July, reportedly due to an audit of Pentagon stockpiles. According to analysts, the new plan allows Washington to maintain its role in supporting Kyiv while shifting the costs to European partners.
Markets and policymakers now await responses from Beijing, New Delhi, and Ankara. Will they bow to the pressure or challenge Washington’s hardline approach? One thing is clear: Trump’s return to a strategy of maximum pressure is reshaping the global economic and geopolitical landscape.
