Moscow Deploys Lukashenko to Promote Dubious “Peace Initiatives” Amid Growing Aerial Threats and Efforts to Undermine Support for Ukraine
On August 1, 2025, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko once again acted as the Kremlin’s mouthpiece, presenting Russia’s proposal for a so-called “aerial ceasefire” in Ukraine. According to him, Vladimir Putin is supposedly seeking to “de-escalate” the conflict by halting drone attacks. But behind this seemingly humanitarian gesture lie strategic objectives: relieving pressure on Russian military infrastructure, regaining aerial dominance, and fragmenting international support for Kyiv.
Putin’s Ceasefire—On His Terms
Lukashenko’s remarks came during a meeting with Putin on Valaam Island—an increasingly symbolic venue for promoting Russia’s alternative diplomatic narratives, far removed from genuine conflict resolution. The proposed “aerial ceasefire” would involve halting the use of drones in combat operations. Yet Russia itself has ramped up its use of Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones, launching repeated strikes against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure since early 2025.
According to the Ukrainian General Staff, over 150 kamikaze drone attacks targeted facilities in the Kyiv, Odesa, and Kharkiv regions in July alone. Most of these strikes were aimed at power stations, grain terminals, and residential areas. As such, Moscow’s suggestion that Ukraine cease its aerial operations appears more like a unilateral ceasefire that benefits only the Kremlin.
The “Drone Over Minsk” Claim Raises Eyebrows
Lukashenko also claimed that a drone carrying 59 kilograms of explosives struck a residential building in Minsk in late July. Despite the gravity of the accusation, no independent verification has been provided—no video footage, no rescue service data. Military analysts note that for a Ukrainian drone to reach Minsk, it would have to bypass dense layers of Russian and Belarusian air defenses—a highly unlikely scenario, especially given Belarus’s tight coordination with Moscow.
Experts do not rule out a real incident, but suggest alternative explanations such as technical failure of a domestic UAV or a staged provocation aimed at justifying increased internal repression and surveillance.
Kremlin’s Diplomatic Offensive During Tactical Pause
With fierce battles continuing in Donbas and southern Ukraine, Moscow appears to be buying time. Since late June 2025, Ukrainian forces—with the help of Western air defense systems and intelligence—have successfully targeted Russian command posts and logistics hubs deep inside Russian territory, including in Belgorod and Rostov regions. According to British Defence Intelligence, Russia lost at least three major airfields in July, severely limiting its capacity for sustained aerial assaults.
Against this backdrop, the “aerial ceasefire” proposal reads as a diplomatic maneuver designed to distract and exploit war fatigue in the West. Lukashenko’s statement that he relayed the initiative to Donald Trump via a “U.S. delegation” also raises questions. Trump, despite his growing popularity ahead of the 2026 midterms, currently holds no official role and cannot speak on behalf of the United States.
Peace Pressure or Agenda Hijack?
Russia’s strategy increasingly relies on asymmetric tactics: disinformation, faux peace offers, and erosion of trust in global institutions. This is not new—Moscow previously floated a “grain deal” during its blockade of Ukrainian ports, conditioning it on sanctions relief. Now it’s pushing a new narrative: under the guise of de-escalation, it aims to shield its logistics and military capabilities from effective Ukrainian strikes.
The international consensus—including NATO and G7 nations—remains clear: any peace process must originate from Kyiv and adhere to the principles of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Kremlin-backed proposals through secondary actors like Belarus are seen as distractions aimed at prolonging the conflict.
Conclusion
Lukashenko’s remarks are little more than a smokescreen for a Kremlin effort to reclaim strategic momentum. As Ukraine’s air defense improves, Western alliances grow stronger, and Russia’s military vulnerabilities deepen, Putin’s calls for an “aerial truce” look less like concern for civilians and more like desperation. The global stance is unwavering: only Ukraine can determine the terms and timing of peace.
