On the eve of the G7 summit in Canada, Kyiv has made a bold appeal. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, Andriy Sibiga, has called for a drastic cut to the current price cap on Russian oil—from $60 to $30 per barrel—arguing that it’s a crucial step toward tightening the sanctions regime.
This demand comes amid growing frustration in Kyiv over what it sees as the ineffectiveness of existing measures. Ukraine, at the center of one of the most significant geopolitical conflicts of recent years, is increasingly vocal about the loopholes and leniency that continue to allow Moscow to sustain robust financial flows—funds that directly support its military capabilities.
The Ineffective $60 Cap
When the $60 price ceiling was introduced in December 2022, its architects hoped it would severely reduce the Kremlin’s oil revenues. Yet by 2024, Moscow had not only adapted but thrived. According to Bloomberg, Russia’s oil and gas revenues reached approximately $180 billion in 2024, despite ongoing sanctions. A key factor has been the redirection of exports to Asia, especially China and India, where Western restrictions have little impact. The global market proved far more flexible than expected.
Moreover, Russia has expanded its use of what’s known as a “shadow fleet”—an estimated 600 tankers, according to the Financial Times—that circumvent restrictions by disguising cargo origins and flouting the price cap. This has effectively created a parallel global oil trade where sanctions become more of an inconvenience than a deterrent.
What Kyiv Is Proposing
Ukraine argues that only a decisive economic strike can change Moscow’s strategic calculus. Reducing the price cap to $30 would not just cut into profits—it could make exports economically unviable. “This is not just an energy issue,” Sibiga said. “It’s a matter of political will. We must shut down the source that fuels this war.”
In addition to lowering the price limit, Kyiv urges its allies to ramp up enforcement. This includes sanctions on companies helping to bypass the cap, stricter controls on insurance and shipping for Russian oil, and renewed efforts to target the shadow fleet. Ukraine has also reiterated calls for the use of frozen Russian assets to fund its defense and reconstruction efforts.
Analyst Views: Effective, but Risky
Analysts agree that lowering the cap could indeed impact Russia’s budget. However, such a move also comes with risks—chief among them, the potential for global oil prices to rise if Moscow retaliates by reducing exports. This could pressure consumers in sanctioning countries and hand fresh talking points to critics of harsher measures.
“Cutting the cap to $30 is a strong political signal, but it needs broad international alignment, especially with energy markets already on edge,” said Martin Schäfer, a professor of international economics at the University of Toronto.
What Comes Next
The upcoming G7 summit will be a decisive forum for discussions on how far the coalition is willing to go. Ukraine is betting that the moral argument—choking off war financing—will outweigh the fear of rising energy costs.
If even part of the G7 backs Kyiv’s initiative, it could mark the beginning of a new phase in the sanctions campaign: far more aggressive, and potentially far more effective. The question is whether the world is prepared to accept the consequences—and pay the price—for pressure that might finally shift the balance.
