Ukraine Awaits the Signal: Trump Hints at a New Offensive and Pressures Russia with Oil and Weapons

The United States has returned to the center of the global stage — Donald Trump announced that Ukraine is preparing for an offensive against Russia, but the final decision on supporting this move will be made in Washington. The statement came ahead of an expected meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky and became the loudest signal in recent months: the game surrounding the war is entering a new phase, where oil, weapons, and diplomacy intertwine into a single political spring.

While speaking to the press, Trump said directly: “We’ll be talking to him about the war. They want to go on the offensive. I’ll make a decision about that.” These words confirmed that Washington now effectively decides when and how Ukraine will be able to launch an attack. According to U.S. media, Kyiv has already requested Tomahawk missiles and other long-range systems capable of striking targets far beyond the front line. For Ukraine, this is a chance to change the dynamics of the war; for Washington, it’s a risk of opening a new chapter of conflict — one where the line between support and direct participation is becoming increasingly blurred.

Diplomatic sources say Kyiv is not just seeking another aid package but a qualitative shift in the nature of the war. The transfer of Tomahawks would mark a new level of cooperation — involving intelligence sharing, target designation, and direct logistical support from the U.S. The Pentagon, according to Reuters and The Washington Post, is discussing this move under the PURL program, which turns military aid to Ukraine into a collective ally commitment. The U.S. supplies the weapons, while European countries reimburse part of the cost. This is the financial foundation of a future strategy — “fight together, pay together.”

On another flank of the geopolitical chessboard came Trump’s statement about India. He said Prime Minister Narendra Modi had promised to “give up Russian oil” soon. “It’s not an instant process, but he said they’ll stop. And that’s important,” Trump emphasized. If his words prove true, the consequences will be significant. India is one of the largest buyers of Russian oil. Its withdrawal from the market could hit Moscow’s budget harder than dozens of sanction packages. However, Delhi has not confirmed these claims publicly — and analysts note that Washington may be using this statement more as leverage than as a fixed agreement.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth urged allies to increase their contributions to the PURL fund, declaring that “it’s time to make Moscow feel the cost of war.” In Brussels, the statement was received with mixed reactions: some see it as a show of determination, others as an attempt to shift the financial burden. Meanwhile, Zelensky is preparing for his meeting at the White House, where, according to sources, an “operational map” and possible winter offensive scenarios will be discussed. In Kyiv, this is described as a chance to “move from defense to initiative,” but many experts warn that any expansion of hostilities could provoke a sharp Russian response.

Trump’s statement on Russian oil is not just an economic message but part of a broader strategy. The White House aims to simultaneously reduce Moscow’s revenues and show it can influence even giants like India. Analysts from AP and The Guardian note that Washington is returning to a model of pressure that combines sanctions with trade incentives: “Those with us gain markets; those with Moscow lose contracts.” If India truly begins to scale down imports of Russian oil, it would mark the biggest energy shift since the start of the war.

Immediately after the Trump–Zelensky meeting, a new chapter of the war could begin. If the U.S. agrees to supply Tomahawks and other long-range systems, Ukraine will gain a powerful tool for its winter campaign. This could shift the balance on the front — but also raise the stakes to a dangerous level. Washington seems to be betting on a “peace through pressure” strategy: simultaneously hitting Russia’s economy, strengthening Ukraine’s army, and forcing the Kremlin to the negotiating table not out of will, but out of necessity.

Amid all the loud statements, one thing is clear: the war is entering a new phase, where decisions are made not on the battlefield, but at negotiating tables in the White House and Delhi. Ukraine is waiting for permission to advance, Russia is watching every word, and global markets are reacting nervously to every mention of “oil” and “Tomahawks.” Washington is balancing between demonstrating strength and fearing escalation — like a tightrope walker over an abyss. But while the decisions remain unspoken, one thing is certain: in the geopolitical chess game, it’s America’s move again.