The topic of a potential U.S. military base in Azerbaijan—once considered unlikely—is rapidly gaining traction in the public discourse. Although no official confirmation has been provided so far, the very discussion of such a possibility has already sparked intense debate among experts and political figures.

The discussion was triggered by a July 22, 2025 publication in the Azerbaijani outlet Caliber.az, in which journalist Seimir Veliyev proposed the idea of establishing a NATO base in the Khachmaz district, just a few dozen kilometers from the Russian border. The proposal is linked to the Individual Partnership Action Plan (IPAP) with the alliance and is presented as a move that could strengthen Azerbaijan’s role in the region’s security architecture.

These proposals echo earlier reports from Azerbaijani Telegram channels in early July. At that time, citing the head of the presidential administration, Eldar Namazov, sources claimed there were plans to create the largest NATO military facility in the region together with Turkey—as a response to increasing pressure from Moscow.

A critical backdrop to these developments is the peace agreement signed just days ago, on August 8, between Azerbaijan, Armenia, and the United States. The agreement calls for an end to armed clashes and the opening of a new transport corridor through Armenian territory. For many analysts, the question now is whether the military base would be part of this deal or whether it represents a separate process that could reshape the political map of the region.

If these plans materialize, the consequences could be far-reaching. The proximity of a U.S. military facility to the Russian border could alter the balance of power not only in the South Caucasus but across the broader Eurasian landscape. Moscow would likely see such a move as a direct challenge to its interests. At the same time, for Azerbaijan, it could serve as a means to bolster its security guarantees and enhance its international standing—though at the cost of potentially straining relations with its northern neighbor.

For now, everything remains at the level of speculation and media reports. Yet history shows that in geopolitics, even the boldest ideas can become reality faster than public opinion is prepared for them. And the question of whether Azerbaijan will become a new strategic hub in the global power game may be answered sooner than many expect.

Azerbaijan’s Military and Geopolitical Alignments