Donald Trump’s administration is gearing up for a bold move that could shake global trade and diplomacy. Washington intends to push its G7 allies to impose extraordinarily high tariffs — ranging from 50 to 100 percent — on imports from China and India. The reason is both straightforward and explosive: these two countries have become the largest buyers of Russian oil, helping Moscow offset Western sanctions and continue financing the war in Ukraine.
Finance ministers and G7 leaders are preparing to take up the issue at the summit scheduled for late September. According to the White House, the tariffs are meant to serve as a powerful lever of pressure: Russia’s energy export revenues would plummet, forcing the Kremlin to seek an exit through negotiations. Trump’s team stresses that the tariffs are not intended as permanent punishment but as a tool that could be lifted once the war ends. Still, the idea is far from uncontroversial. For Washington, it represents a continuation of a hardline approach where economics are wielded as a weapon. For Europe, however, it risks becoming a painful blow to its own interests: many states rely heavily on Chinese and Indian markets and are reluctant to turn potential partners into adversaries.
India has already felt the sting of such measures. U.S. tariffs on some Indian goods, including energy, reached 50 percent, straining bilateral ties. Recently, however, Washington and New Delhi began a tentative thaw: negotiations were resumed, and there is even talk of a potential meeting between Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. This fragile warming could quickly evaporate if the new tariff proposal gains traction among U.S. allies. China, meanwhile, is expected to take a firm stance. For Beijing, Russian oil is not just an energy source but a component of a strategic partnership. Any attempt to punish China through tariffs will be seen as a direct challenge, likely prompting a symmetrical response — from restrictions on American companies to strengthening ties with Moscow.
Experts warn that Washington’s initiative sets the stage for a complex set of scenarios. If G7 allies fall in line, Russia’s financial situation will deteriorate further, narrowing its room for maneuver. But if Europe takes a more cautious approach and seeks to soften the proposal, the world may witness the strengthening of alternative alliances — from closer cooperation between India and Russia to the emergence of new trade blocs across Asia.
In this light, tariffs morph from a dry economic measure into a fully fledged instrument of global politics. They could either accelerate the end of the war or drive the planet into a new cycle of trade wars and global fragmentation.
The step Washington is putting on the table looks less like diplomacy and more like the crack of a starting pistol. The race will not only involve Russia but the very architecture of world trade. Globalization, built over decades on the premise of open markets, now collides with a harsher reality: economic barriers once again are being weaponized, forcing allies to choose between principles and pragmatism. What is being debated behind closed doors at the G7 summit already resembles the prologue to a new era — one where tariffs carry as much weight as diplomatic speeches or military doctrines.
