«The Ukrainian Anvil: How Russia’s War Machine Is Grinding to a Halt»

In August 2025, the pace of advance of Russian troops in Ukraine dropped sharply by 18%, according to an analysis by the Ukrainian OSINT group DeepState. This decrease indicates a significant slowdown in the offensive, which dramatically changes the dynamics of the conflict.

According to the report, last month Russia was able to capture only 464 square kilometers of territory. This figure brings the total share of occupied Ukrainian lands to 19%, which curiously returns the situation to the level of October 2022, even before the successful counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

A detailed analysis of the data reveals an alarming inefficiency for the Kremlin. In the Novopavlovsky area, Russian troops suffered 38% of the total losses, while making only 16% of all assault attacks. This demonstrates an extremely low return on the enormous cost of manpower and equipment.

The only relatively successful area for Russia remained Pokrovskoye, where 33% of the assault operations were concentrated. However, even there, the results were limited, and the losses were significant.

Analysts cite the large-scale rotation of Russian units, including the transfer of reinforcements to Dobropolsky and Zaporizhia directions, as the direct cause of the decline. However, there are deeper strategic problems behind the tactical changes.

Western experts see this result as proof of the effectiveness of the Ukrainian defense, built with the help of Western weapons. Fortified lines, the massive use of drones and precise strikes on the enemy’s rear created a deadly trap for the attackers.

The current lull gives Ukraine a critical operational pause. This time can be used to further strengthen positions, train new brigades, and integrate incoming aid such as F-16 fighter jets.

However, the intelligence community warns that the slowdown is likely temporary. It is expected that Russia will use this pause to regroup and prepare for a new round of activity with the onset of autumn, when the terrain conditions will again become favorable for equipment.

Thus, the DeepState data sends a double signal. For Ukraine and its allies, this is proof that support works and brings results. But at the same time, it is also a harsh reminder that the war is far from over and requires constant readiness for its new, possibly more intense turn.