Russia Withdraws from Missile Moratorium — A Shift Toward Escalation?
On August 4, 2025, Russia officially announced that it no longer considers itself bound by the self-imposed moratorium on the deployment of ground-based intermediate- and shorter-range missiles. The Foreign Ministry justified this decision by citing alleged threats near Russia’s borders. However, independent analysts argue that the move is part of a broader pattern of military escalation and strategic pressure.
The declaration comes months after the foreign minister publicly stated that the conditions for the moratorium “no longer exist” — effectively laying the groundwork for this shift in policy.
Dismantling Constraints: End of Restraint?
The moratorium, adopted after the U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty in 2019, had served as a temporary stabilizing factor. Its removal now disrupts an already fragile balance, especially amid rising instability in both Europe and the Indo-Pacific region.
Experts warn that this shift puts remaining arms control mechanisms at risk — most notably the New START treaty, which is set to expire in February 2026 unless renewed.
Rising Threats in Europe and Asia
The potential deployment of new missile systems near NATO borders — including in Belarus, Kaliningrad, or Russia’s Far East — is seen as a serious security threat. Simultaneously, regional powers such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia may consider strengthening their own deterrent capabilities.
Adding to the concern is the deepening military and technological alignment between Moscow and Pyongyang, including possible cooperation on ballistic missile systems according to reports.
Global Response
International reactions have been swift. Multiple governments emphasized that no ground-based missiles are being deployed in Europe in violation of prior agreements. Russia’s claims of a “forced response” were dismissed as factually incorrect by officials.
Observers are calling for urgent multilateral negotiations to establish a new framework for strategic stability — one that includes not only the United States and Russia, but also China and other nuclear-capable states.
A New Arms Race?
Russia’s withdrawal from its missile moratorium signals a return to an era where arms buildup defines global security dynamics. Unlike the Cold War, today’s landscape is complicated by hypersonic weapons, autonomous systems, cyber capabilities, and a lack of trust — making miscalculation far more dangerous.
Without a new global restraint mechanism, the current decade could become the most volatile since the peak of the 20th-century nuclear crises.
