Last week, Russia’s export statistics showed a sharp plunge not seen in months: 29 tankers carried just 22.26 million barrels of oil. The week before, 38 ships transported nearly 6.5 million barrels more. The drop wasn’t caused by market conditions or voluntary production cuts. Instead, drone strikes on key Baltic ports literally halted terminal operations.
The spotlight fell on Primorsk — Russia’s largest western oil port. According to multiple reports, for the first time since the war began, loading had to be suspended after a drone attack. Ships and a pumping station caught fire; though the blaze was extinguished, the temporary halt was symbolic. The strike hit the very “gateway” through which much of Russia’s export flows pass. For Moscow, this is painful — Primorsk was long considered secure and untouchable.
The problems didn’t stop at the ports. Drone attacks also hit oil refineries, including the Kirishi plant near St. Petersburg. Fires there added instability to Russia’s domestic fuel market and stoked fears of shortages in refined products. The pipeline operator has already warned producers: if attacks continue and storage tanks overflow, output will have to be cut. In other words, infrastructure vulnerabilities could ripple through the entire sector — from the oil well to the end consumer.
Kyiv makes no secret of its motives: striking Russia’s oil sector is part of a strategy to deprive Moscow of fuel for its war machine and export revenues. Unlike long, grinding sanctions campaigns, drones deliver immediate impact, turning loading hubs into choke points. Financial markets are already reacting: traders are pricing in a “risk premium” for Baltic shipments, and price volatility is rising.
These events reveal a new reality: the once-assured reliability of Russia’s export routes is crumbling under drone pressure. Primorsk, which for years operated like clockwork, suddenly became a symbol of vulnerability. What once looked like a solid, unstoppable mechanism of oil logistics now resembles a fragile system of pipes and valves — where a single precise strike can disrupt the rhythm of the entire machine.
If such strikes become routine, Russia will face stark choices: cut production, reroute flows, or invest heavily in costly defenses for ports and refineries. For the global market, this is a new source of volatility: oil prices will rise not only because of OPEC’s decisions or demand swings but also because of geopolitical risks — already materialized in the smoke over Baltic terminals. The conclusion is both simple and unsettling: drone attacks have turned Russia’s energy artery into a pressure point for the global market. If this trend continues, the coming months may test the resilience not just of Moscow, but of the entire world oil system.
